Friday, January 9, 2009

Investing in Deflation or Inflation?

Lately, I've been asking myself: "What is a safe investment during deflation or inflation?" I did some digging, and the best answer I could find is that some people think Gold is a good investment whether we enter hyperinflation or deflation. Others disagree. I've posted both sides, but I happen to think Gold is a good trade until it pops up big.

Investment Themes For Hyperinflation
- In hyperinflation the last place one wants to be is in cash.
- Commodities in general are a standout.
- Gold is a standout.
- Precious metals are a standout.
- Property is a winner.
- Equities are a winner.
- Treasuries are distinct losers if not an outright short.
- Foreign currencies
- Energy

Investment Themes For Deflation
- In deflation, debt is the enemy.
- Risk is to be avoided.
- Cash is raised.
- Treasuries are sought out as a safe haven.
- CD ladders offer a good investment structure.
- Gold, acting as money does well.
- Select equity shorts or PUTs are a standout.
- Renting as opposed to owning a house should be considered.
- Currency plays

Anti-Gold Argument:
"Do not make the mistake of thinking that gold always does well. It does not. It fell from over $800 to $250 in a decade's long crash. There was positive inflation all the way. Thus gold is not an inflation hedge no matter what anyone says, except perhaps in the very longest of timeframes. The key here is that gold does well at extremes. Those extremes are severe inflation and deflation."

Source:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/how-does-one-invest-for-inflation-and.html

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