Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Gold vs USD

Typically, the U.S. Dollar and Gold share an inverse relationship. If the US Dollar rises, then Gold falls. If the US Dollar falls, Gold rises. Below is a chart I found that illustrates this relationship since the 1970's.


Over the past few weeks of January 2009, gold has been rallying WITH the dollar when, according to conventional wisdom, it should be declining. This does happen from time to time, but it is unusual.

In the diagram below, I was anticipating a decline (green circle) but it never happened. Instead, we rallied (red circle). As you can see, that doesn't happen too often.


What does this mean? Is this a greater trend? A sign of bigger moves ahead? Is it telegraphing more trouble in the financial markets? Is Gold now decoupling from the U.S Dollar as investors see it as the only true safe haven?

I'll be watching.

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